The Palestinian strategy against Israel is aimed at destroying Israel’s capacity to survive in its present state in a long war.
This means attacking the invincibility of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and theur so-called Iron Dome defence; this began with the cross-border offensive on October 7, and continues with daily drone and artillery attacks on targets inside Israel, as well as resistance to IDF incursions in Gaza.
The plan also means exposing the weakness of the state’s infrastructure and economy; extending the battlefield across all of Israel’s territory – the ports, power plants and electricity grid, communications, and financial markets — making the cost of occupation of the Arab territories unendurable. In a long war, two of Israel’s leading exports earning more than 40% of the state’s trade — diamonds and tourism — face ruin.*

巴勒斯坦對以色列的戰略旨在摧毀以色列在長期戰爭中以目前狀態生存的能力。
這意味著攻擊以色列國防軍(IDF)和他們所謂的鐵穹防御系統。這始于10月7日的越境進攻,并繼續每天對以色列境內目標進行無人機和大炮攻擊,以及抵抗以色列國防軍在加沙的入侵。
該計劃還意味著暴露該國基礎設施和經濟的弱點。將戰場擴展到以色列的所有領土——港口、發電廠和電網、通訊和金融市場。使占領阿拉伯領土的代價難以忍受。在一場曠日持久的戰爭中,占以色列貿易40%以上的兩大主要出口產品——鉆石和旅游業——將面臨破產。

“The Israelis cannot withstand one year of fighting in a war,” Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein told his general staff in 1983 during a discussion of planning for a regional war of the Arabs against Israel.** In the forty years since then, the evolution of military technology and tactics has expanded the power of small national liberation armies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, of proxy principals like Iran, and of the strategic balancing role of Russia and China. Their combination now has shortened the Zionist state’s endurance in a long war, and that of its proxy principal, the US.
The Israelis and the Jewish diaspora comprehend this reluctantly. For them, the short war must be correspondingly shorter. This means the GENOCIDE of at least a million Palestinians in lives and displacement.

1983年,伊拉克總統薩達姆·侯賽因在討論阿拉伯人對以色列的地區戰爭計劃時對他的總參謀部說:“以色列人無法承受一年的戰爭?!?從那以后的40年里,軍事技術和戰術的發展充實了哈馬斯、真主黨和胡塞武裝等小型民族解放軍隊的力量,充實了伊朗等代理人的力量,也擴大了俄羅斯和中國的戰略平衡作用?,F在,他們的結合縮短了猶太復國主義國家在長期戰爭中的耐力,也縮短了其代理人美國的耐力。
以色列人和散居海外的猶太人不情愿地理解了這一點。對他們來說,短期戰爭必須相應地縮短。這意味著至少100萬巴勒斯坦人種族滅絕和流離失所。

The war to do that has now become an international war – and this is a war the US cannot sustain. As a Pentagon insider said publicly this week, “because there are so many draws on the logistics and support infrastructure of the Pentagon, we’re not prepared to go in in a concerted way. What we are seeing right now is death by a thousand cuts. Our adversaries know we are stretched so they are going to make us stretch even more, so we can respond even less.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, acknowledged the point in Moscow on Thursday: US naval, air force, and marine reinforcements deployed around Israel and Gaza are “American tactics to strengthen their own security (this is how it should be interpreted) at someone else’s expense.” They are backfiring on Washington’s capacity to defend US forces in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and in land bases in Syria, Iraq and Jordan. “On the contrary,” Zakharova added, the US military deployment “will further rock the situation in the Middle East, create additional tension that can spill out beyond the region.”

這樣做的戰爭現在已經變成了一場國際戰爭——這是一場美國無法維持的戰爭。正如五角大樓內部人士本周公開表示的那樣,“由于五角大樓的后勤和支持基礎設施有太多的需求,我們不準備以協調一致的方式進入?!?br /> 我們現在看到的是千刀萬剮。我們的對手知道我們疲于奔命,所以他們會讓我們更加疲于奔命,這樣我們就能做出更少的反應?!?br /> 俄羅斯外交部發言人瑪麗亞·扎哈羅娃周四在莫斯科承認了這一點:美國在以色列和加沙周圍部署的??哲姾秃\娫鲈筷犑恰懊绹誀奚藶榇鷥r加強自身安全的策略?!?美國在地中海、紅海、波斯灣以及敘利亞、伊拉克和約旦的陸上基地保衛美軍的能力受到了反作用?!跋喾?,”扎哈羅娃補充說,美國的軍事部署“將進一步動搖中東局勢,制造額外的緊張局勢,并可能蔓延到該地區以外?!?/b>

Zakharova’s warning came in the Moscow afternoon. By then Russian Foreign Ministry officials had held meetings with a Hamas delegation, and officials from Iran, Egypt, and Kuwait. Across the city at the same time, President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Kremlin communiqué reported: “Russia and Turkiye have practically overlapping positions.”
Israeli and US-led media censorship and propaganda are concealing the breadth of impact of the Palestine warfighting plan, and the deepening military and economic weaknesses of the Israeli state.
The longer the war continues, the plainer the evidence is on the battlefield that the single-state scheme of Israel and the US is no longer possible. Whether Israel and the US can be compelled to withdraw to the 1967 borders and a new Palestinian state created with partition, demilitarisation, and international security guarantees – the basis of the Russian position announced again on Thursday in Moscow — remains to be fought over.

扎哈羅娃的警告是在莫斯科的下午發出的。當時,俄羅斯外交部官員已經與哈馬斯代表團以及伊朗、埃及和科威特的官員舉行了會談。與此同時,俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京與土耳其總統雷杰普·塔伊普·埃爾多安進行了電話會談??死锬妨謱m的公報稱:“俄羅斯和土耳其的立場實際上是重疊的?!?br /> 以色列和美國主導的媒體審查和宣傳掩蓋了巴勒斯坦作戰計劃的廣泛影響,以及以色列國家日益加深的軍事和經濟弱點。戰爭持續的時間越長,戰場上的證據就越明顯,即以色列和美國的單一國家計劃不再可能實現。
能否迫使以色列和美國撤回到1967年的邊界,并建立一個新的巴勒斯坦國,并實行分區、非軍事化和國際安全保障——這是俄羅斯周四在莫斯科再次宣布的立場的基礎——仍有待爭論。

In this long war, the gods do not favour the Chosen People.
Following with precision the battlefield action is impossible in the Israeli and Anglo-American press. Reporting of operations, and of Israeli and US casualties, is being suppressed entirely or delayed for days, if not weeks.
According to this NBC television report, broadcast on October 24, there were at least 24 US combat casualties following drone attacks on or about October 18 at the Al-Tanf base in Syria and the Al-Asad base in Iraq. Reporting of naval action in the Red Sea, when the USS Carney reportedly engaged Houthi missiles over several hours, has been changing since the initial news flashes of October 19. Read more here. In a new report of October 24, Israeli and US casualties in a joint raid inside Gaza were revealed: “in the last 24 hours or so, some of our Special Ops forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan for where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact, and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses, as I understand it. I think that is where we are headed and I don’t see that as a win for Israel in any way, shape, or form. And I certainly think it is very dangerous for us”. In current reporting by Al Mayadeen, daily strikes against US bases in Iraq and northeastern Syria are documented.

在這場漫長的戰爭中諸神不會眷顧應許之人
在以色列和英美媒體中,精確跟蹤戰場行動是不可能的。有關行動以及以軍和美軍傷亡的報道,要么被完全壓制,要么被推遲數天,甚至數周。
據美國全國廣播公司電視臺10月24日報道,美軍無人機18日前后先后對敘利亞的坦夫基地和伊拉克的阿薩德基地發動襲擊,造成至少24人傷亡。自10月19日最初的新聞報道以來,有關海軍在紅海行動的報道一直在變化。據報道,卡尼號驅逐艦(USS Carney)在幾個小時內與胡塞武裝交戰。鏈接略
在10月24日的一份新報告中,以色列和美國在加沙的一次聯合襲擊中傷亡人數被披露:
“據我所知,在過去的24小時左右,美國的一些特種部隊和以色列特種部隊進入加沙進行偵察,計劃他們可能想要去哪里釋放人質并制造影響,但他們被擊斃,損失慘重。我認為這就是當前局勢,從任何角度來說,我都不認為這是以色列的勝利。我當然認為這對我們來說非常危險?!痹贏l Mayadeen最近的報道中,每天對美國在伊拉克和敘利亞東北部基地的襲擊都有記錄。

Tracking the electric war and infrastructure strikes by Hamas and Hezbollah is also difficult. They commenced with cyber attacks on Israel’s electricity generation plants and power grids; these have been followed by missile and drone strikes. “The ground has been laid for attacks on the Israeli grid,” a US military source claims. “I believe drones will come first, then missiles. We may even see commando raids.”
Israel’s seaports are also under constant attack. Ashkelon, which is closest in range to Gaza, has been closed. Eilat may have been the target of the Houthi missile strike which was engaged last week by the USS Carney. Ashdod, which accounts for about 40% of incoming and outgoing Israeli seaborne trade, and Tel Aviv port have been targeted. The result is a tenfold surge in war risk insurance for vessels and cargoes, and the curtailment of international vessel movement in and out of the Israeli ports; there are reports that shipping is down 30% in Ashdod compared to the pre-war volume. Evergreen, the Taiwanese container shipping company, declared force majeure for Ashdod on October 17, diverted one vessel to Haifa, and halted future shipping into both ports. “We advise uating each port visit in Israel on a case by case basis and implementing appropriate precautions in ship contingency plans,” recommends a maritime industry alx bulletin.

追蹤哈馬斯和真主黨發動的電力戰爭和基礎設施襲擊很困難。他們首先對以色列的發電廠和電網進行網絡攻擊;隨后是導彈和無人機襲擊。一名美國軍方消息人士稱:“已經為襲擊以色列電網奠定了基礎?!薄拔蚁嘈艧o人機將首先出現,然后是導彈。我們甚至可能會看到突擊隊的突襲?!?br /> 以色列的海港也不斷受到攻擊。距離加沙最近的阿什克倫已被關閉。埃拉特可能是胡塞導彈襲擊的目標,上周美國海軍卡尼號驅逐艦卷入其中。阿什杜德港和特拉維夫港已成為襲擊目標。阿什杜德港約占以色列進出海上貿易的40%。其結果是船只和貨物的戰爭風險保險激增了十倍,進出以色列港口的國際船只減少了;有報道稱阿什杜德的運輸量與戰前相比下降了30%。
臺灣集裝箱航運公司長榮于10月17日宣布,前往阿什杜德的船舶遭遇不可抗力,將一艘船調往海法,并停止未來在這兩個港口的航運。海運業警報公告建議:“我們建議根據具體情況評估對以色列的每次港口訪問,并在船舶應急計劃中實施適當的預防措施?!?/b>
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.ribblestockfxtrade.com 轉載請注明出處


Chevron’s offshore Tamar gas field has been shut down. The source produces 70% of the gas required to fuel Israel’s electricity generation needs. Not a single Anglo-American media source has noticed that Israel is at risk of losing its principal energy source to drone or missile attack. “After what the Americans and Germans did to blow up the Nordstream pipelines,” comments a Moscow industry source, “what is holding Hamas back from hitting Tamar, or Hezbollah from the other Israeli gas fields?”
A Moscow source comments that “in Israel, the US and the UK will be able to bring in supplies without a very big risk of US ships being attacked. The risk is to the ports and bases, not to supplies from the Med[iterranean]. The Greek and Cyprus bases will come in very useful. Israel will not face severe logistical issues as long as it is on the offensive. If its settlements start getting cut off, encircled or penetrated then it is a different matter.”

雪佛龍的海上Tamar氣田已經關閉。該氣田生產的天然氣滿足了以色列70%的發電需求。沒有一家英美媒體注意到,以色列正面臨著因無人機或導彈襲擊而失去其主要能源來源的風險?!霸诿绹撕偷聡苏Я吮毕艿乐?,”一位莫斯科工業界人士評論道,“有什么能阻止哈馬斯襲擊Tamar,或者有什么能阻止真主黨襲擊以色列的其他天然氣田?”



圖:左圖:雪佛龍的Tamar天然氣生產平臺位于阿什克倫以西24公里的海上。右:點擊放大以色列海上天然氣資源地圖。

The indirect economic impacts of the war have also not been calculated or discussed in the mainstream media or international business newspapers. The leading export revenue earners are diamonds at above $9 billion per annum, and tourism which had been peaking at $8.5 billion in 2019. Counted together, diamonds and tourism amount to more than 40% of the state’s export earnings.
The Covid-19 pandemic and worldwide travel restrictions cut Israel’s tourism revenue fourfold, and this had been recovering over 2022 and the tourist season this year. This has now stopped, although for the time being Hamas rocket launches on Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv have been intercepted.

戰爭的間接經濟影響也沒有在主流媒體或國際商業報紙上計算或討論。主要的出口收入來源是每年超過90億美元的鉆石,以及2019年達到85億美元峰值的旅游業。算在一起,鉆石和旅游業占該國出口收入的40%以上。
2019冠狀病毒病大流行和全球旅行限制,使以色列的旅游收入減少了四分之三,而這一收入在2022年和今年的旅游季節一直在恢復。雖然哈馬斯向特拉維夫附近的本古里安機場發射的火箭暫時被攔截,但目前這種情況已經停止。

Israel’s high-tech machine exports and pharmaceuticals may also be affected if electricity supply, internet networks, and transportation are damaged.
The cumulative effect will be the outcome which the international ratings agencies have been warning the international banks and financial markets to prepare for. “In our view,” Fitch reported to clients on October 17, “the combination of Israel’s dynamic, high-value added economy, the record of resilience to regional conflict, [and] preparedness for military confrontations…make it unlikely a relatively short conflict largely confined to Gaza will affect Israel’s rating…. the risk that other actors hostile to Israel, such as Iran and Hezbollah, could join the conflict at scale has risen significantly…a major escalation could result in negative rating action. This could take the form of a wider and longer conflict, resulting in a sustained fiscal drain, both from higher spending and lower tax collection, as well as loss of human and material capital and severe economic disruption.”

如果電力供應、互聯網和交通受到破壞,以色列的高科技機器出口和藥品也可能受到影響。
累積效應將是國際評級機構一直警告國際銀行和金融市場要做好準備的結果?!霸谖覀兛磥?,”惠譽10月17日向客戶報告稱,“以色列充滿活力、高附加值的經濟、對地區沖突的彈性記錄,以及對軍事對抗的準備……這些因素結合在一起,使一場主要局限于加沙地帶的相對較短的沖突不太可能影響以色列的評級。但對以色列懷有敵意的其他行為體,如伊朗和真主黨,可能大規模加入沖突的風險已經顯著上升……重大升級可能導致負面評級行動。這可能會導致范圍更廣、時間更長的沖突,導致持續的財政流失,包括支出增加和稅收減少,以及人力和物質資本的損失和嚴重的經濟中斷?!?/b>

How short, and also how long, Israel’s warfighting plan will take depends on American and international acceptance, not only of the GENOCIDE intended for the Palestinians of Gaza, but of the Novichok-type chemical warfare planned by the IDF and the Pentagon for the Hamas tunnel system in Gaza City. After several years in which the US and UK have fabricated claims that Syria and Russia were using prohibited gas warfare weapons, the Israelis have reportedly persuaded the US to participate in the tunnel attack operation. The Pentagon is denying the reports.
Russian and US military sources are already confirming the logistical supply problems facing Israeli and US forces at present, when the war is just three weeks long. Greek sources are reporting the Souda Bay, Crete, base has already reached its capacity for incoming US navy and air force supply and support operations; the spillover is facing growing Greek protest at the Elefsina air base near Athens.

以及以色列的戰斗計劃持續多久,將取決于美國和國際的接受度。不僅是對加沙的巴勒斯坦人的種族滅絕,還有國際社會對加沙城哈馬斯隧道網絡的化學戰爭的接受。幾年來,美國和英國一直捏造敘利亞和俄羅斯使用違禁氣體武器的說法,據報道,以色列已經說服美國參與隧道襲擊行動。五角大樓否認了這些報道。
俄羅斯和美國軍方的消息來源已經證實,目前以色列和美國軍隊面臨后勤供應問題,而戰爭只有三周的時間。據希臘消息來源報道,克里特島的蘇達灣基地已經達到了美國海軍和空軍補給和支持行動的能力;這種溢出效應在雅典附近的埃萊夫西納空軍基地引發了希臘人越來越多的抗議。

A Cyprus source says the movement of US and British aircraft into and out of the Dekhelia and Akrotiri airbases is accelerating, and there is an air and seaborne shuttle between the Cypriot ports of Larnaca and Limassol and the USS Gerald Ford carrier group at sea to the southwest of the island.
The lengthening of the supply lines required to support the USS Eisenhower carrier group in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and the shore bases needed to support it are politically sensitive already; and the risks of Houthi and other attacks, along with domestic Arab crowd protests, will intensify for these bases in the Arab sheikhdoms the longer the war against Israel reveals Arab and Iranian warfighting skill and resistance.
Converting these gains into a negotiating frxwork for Israeli-American retreat is the task Russian officials are attempting in silent coordination with the Chinese, and in semi-open negotiations in Moscow this week. In its first move outside the region since the war began, Hamas has visited Moscow for negotiations, led by US-educated Moussa Mohammed Abu Marzouq.

一位塞浦路斯消息人士稱,美國和英國飛機進出澤海利亞和阿克羅蒂里空軍基地的速度正在加快,在塞浦路斯拉納卡和利馬索爾港口之間有空中和海上穿梭,在該島西南部的海上有杰拉爾德·福特號航母戰斗群。
延長在紅海和波斯灣支援艾森豪威爾號航母戰斗群所需的補給線,以及支援該戰斗群所需的海岸基地,在政治上已經很敏感。針對以色列的戰爭暴露出,阿拉伯和伊朗的作戰技巧和抵抗能力的時間越長,這些阿拉伯酋長國的基地面臨的胡塞武裝和其他組織襲擊以及阿拉伯國內人群抗議的風險就會加劇。
將這些成果轉化為以色列和美國撤退的談判框架,是俄羅斯官員本周在莫斯科進行的半公開談判中試圖與中國進行的一項任務。自戰爭開始以來,哈馬斯首次走出該地區,訪問莫斯科進行談判,由受過美國教育的穆薩·穆罕默德·阿布·馬爾祖克領導。
(未完待續)